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Tree risk assessment in Australia — what QTRA is, and who actually needs one

A lone mature eucalypt standing in open arid country under a clear blue sky.

The duty to manage tree risk is enforceable. The qualification to assess it is not regulated at all. That gap is worth understanding before you commission a report.

Jonathan Dupont · QTRA-certified forester September 2026 7 min read

Tree risk assessment in Australia sits in an unusual regulatory position. The duty to manage the risk is real and enforceable. The qualification to assess it is not regulated at all. Understanding that gap is the beginning of understanding what you are actually buying.

“Arborist” is not a licensed title

There is no Australian licensing regime for the word “arborist”. Anyone may use it. There are genuine qualifications — AQF Level 3 and Level 5 arboriculture, and risk-specific certifications such as QTRA and TRAQ — but none is legally required to write a tree report, and local government requirements vary. Sunshine Coast Council, for instance, does not mandate AQF Level 5 for report authorship.

The practical consequence: the credential on the report matters more than the job title, and you have to ask.

What QTRA does

Three input cards — target, size and probability of failure — combining into a single Risk of Harm figure of one in 45,000.HOW THE NUMBER IS BUILTThree assessed ranges, one Risk of HarmTARGETWhat is beneath the treeand how often it is occupied6 ranges×SIZEDiameter of the partthat could fail4 ranges · 25 mm – 450 mm+×PROBABILITYOF FAILURELikelihood that part failswithin twelve months7 ranges=RISK OF HARM1 in 45,000annual probabilityto one significant figureCombined by the QTRA calculator using Monte Carlo simulation. One significant figure is deliberate — it signals a calibrated estimate, not false precision.
The three inputs. Target, size and probability of failure are each assessed as a range, then combined by the QTRA calculator. Source: QTRA Practice Note.

Quantified Tree Risk Assessment applies conventional risk-management principles to trees. Rather than producing an opinion about a tree's condition, it produces an annual probability that the tree will cause harm — a figure directly comparable to the everyday risks that regulators and courts already work with.

Three inputs are combined:

  1. Target. What is beneath or within range of the tree, and how often it is occupied. A footpath used twice a week and a children's playground used daily are different targets even under an identical tree.
  2. Size. The diameter of the part that could fail, across four ranges from 25 mm to over 450 mm. A falling twig and a falling scaffold limb are not the same event.
  3. Probability of failure. The likelihood that the part fails within twelve months, across seven ranges, based on visual assessment of structure, defects, decay and loading.

The three ranges are combined by the QTRA calculator, which uses Monte Carlo simulation to derive a mean, and the result is reported to one significant figure.

The thresholds

Logarithmic scale of QTRA annual risk of harm. Broadly acceptable below one in a million; tolerable from one in a million to one in a thousand, with an internal threshold at one in ten thousand for risk imposed on others; unacceptable above one in a thousand. A worked example of one in 45,000 falls within the tolerable region.BROADLYACCEPTABLETOLERABLEmanage and monitorTOLERABLEcloser scrutinyUNACCEPTABLEaction required1/10,000,0001/1,000,0001/100,0001/10,0001/1,0001/100ANNUAL RISK OF HARM — increasing →1/1,000,000broadly acceptable limit1/10,000risk imposed on others1/1,000tolerability limitQTRA ADVISORY RISK THRESHOLDSWhere a calculated Risk of Harm sitsWorked example1 in 45,000 falls in the tolerable region — manage and monitor, not remove.1 in 45,000
QTRA advisory risk thresholds. The 1/10,000 line inside the tolerable region marks where risk is imposed on people who did not choose to accept it. Source: QTRA Practice Note.

The output is read against published tolerability thresholds:

Risk of HarmRegionWhat it means
Greater than 1/1,000UnacceptableAction required
1/1,000,000 to 1/1,000TolerableManage and monitor; risk imposed on others warrants closer consideration above 1/10,000
Less than 1/1,000,000Broadly acceptableNo action indicated; re-inspect on cycle

The 1/10,000 line inside the tolerable region is the one that does most of the work in practice. It marks where risk is being imposed on people who did not choose to accept it — guests, residents, passers-by, workers — rather than accepted voluntarily.

Why a number rather than a rating

Because the duty you are discharging is expressed in the same terms. Section 19 of the Work Health and Safety Act 2011 (Qld) requires a person conducting a business or undertaking to ensure health and safety “so far as is reasonably practicable”, including “the provision and maintenance of a work environment without risks to health and safety”. Reasonable practicability is a weighing exercise: the likelihood of the hazard, the degree of harm, what is known about it, the availability of controls, and their cost.

You cannot weigh a word. You can weigh a probability against the cost of the control that would reduce it. That is the entire argument for quantification, and it is why QTRA reports read the way they do.

The independence question

QTRA is a method, not a business model. It can be applied by an assessor who also sells removals. The method is sound either way — but the recommendation flowing out of it is only as independent as the person making it. Tree Risk QTRA carries out no tree works of any kind, which means there is no version of the finding that generates additional revenue.

Who actually needs one

Need this documented properly?

Independent QTRA-certified assessment across the Sunshine Coast, Noosa and Gympie. Fixed fees — residential from $350, commercial from $750. No tree works, so there is nothing for us to sell you off the back of the finding.

Call 0494 754 862 Request an assessment

Sources & references

  1. QTRA Ltd, The Quantified Tree Risk Assessment Practice Note. qtra.co.uk
  2. Work Health and Safety Act 2011 (Qld) s 19 — primary duty of care. AustLII
  3. AS 4349.1-2007 Inspection of buildings — Pre-purchase inspections: Residential buildings, cl 3.2.1 and Appendix D (item (y) “Landscaping”). Standard extract
  4. Arboriculture Australia, Tree Risk Assessment Qualification (TRAQ). trees.org.au